How Secure is each NBA team’s future?

These charts were created by looking at what players are under contract for each team by season, and then adding up the total win-shares they contributed to figure out what percentage of each teams win-shares are locked up through the next three seasons. So, for example, the Minnesota Timberwolves have all their players under contact for 2016-17 except for Tayshaun Prince and Greg Smith, who are Unrestricted Free Agents. Since those two players only contributed 0.6 win shares to the Timberwolves, Minnesota has nearly 95% of their win-shares under contract for next season. On the other side of the ledger, the Dallas Mavericks  have only 28% of the win-shares contributed to their team last year under contract for next year.

The table below shows the % of each team’s win-shares under contract over the next three seasons:

Team 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Average
Utah Jazz* 103.59% 39.24% 8.02% 50.28%
Chicago Bulls* 94.46% 55.15% 45.38% 65.00%
Minnesota Timberwolves 94.43% 65.69% 42.23% 67.45%
Philadelphia 76ers 93.75% 42.50% 13.75% 50.00%
Milwaukee Bucks 87.07% 36.59% 23.97% 49.21%
Denver Nuggets 85.12% 64.29% 30.06% 59.82%
Indiana Pacers* 77.97% 47.52% 6.48% 43.99%
Boston Celtics 76.59% 51.13% 15.20% 47.64%
Golden State Warriors 75.96% 28.32% 28.32% 44.20%
Sacramento Kings* 75.64% 38.68% 10.89% 41.74%
Portland Trail Blazers 74.04% 46.73% 29.80% 50.19%
Houston Rockets 73.33% 70.95% 10.48% 51.59%
Oklahoma City Thunder* 71.40% 17.52% 4.13% 31.02%
Phoenix Suns 71.02% 51.02% 40.41% 54.15%
San Antonio Spurs 69.32% 59.48% 19.83% 49.54%
Los Angeles Clippers 68.25% 24.14% 0.00% 30.80%
New Orleans Pelicans 66.24% 32.48% 31.83% 43.52%
Detroit Pistons 64.43% 38.57% 37.41% 46.81%
Toronto Raptors 60.55% 32.66% 22.57% 38.59%
Atlanta Hawks 56.09% 0.40% 0.00% 18.83%
Brooklyn Nets 54.63% 37.89% 6.61% 33.04%
Orlando Magic* 53.23% 38.71% 16.40% 36.11%
Charlotte Hornets* 50.91% 34.34% 33.33% 39.53%
Washington Wizards 50.88% 36.52% 36.52% 41.31%
Memphis Grizzlies 49.30% 14.57% 12.61% 25.49%
Los Angeles Lakers 47.70% 47.13% 12.64% 35.82%
Cleveland Cavaliers 44.16% 41.07% 41.07% 42.10%
New York Knicks 38.68% 22.92% 0.00% 20.53%
Miami Heat 35.43% 33.75% 28.51% 32.56%
Dallas Mavericks 28.16% 24.11% 18.14% 23.47%

*Adjusted for trades announced of the June 25, 2016

Here is a link to an explanation of win-shares: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

As for what counts as “under contract”, I included team options, but did not include any players who had a player option or early termination option in the year in question, since the team could not guarantee that they would be back for that season.

These calculations have been adjusted for the trades that have occurred up to today. So, for example, the New York Knicks lost the win-shares of Robin Lopez for the rest of his contract, but gained the win-shares of Derrick Rose for next year. This also led to the Utah Jazz having above 100% of their 2015-16 win-shares under contract next year, since they gained George Hill while only having Trevor Booker and Erick Green not under contract for the next season.

These calculations can be thrown off by a few different things. For one, some players are almost certain to return to their teams this off-season, such as Lebron James and Dirk Nowitzki, but have not signed contracts yet which artificially lowers the outlook of the Cavaliers and Mavericks. Other players were injured last year and thus didn’t contribute to their teams total win-shares, for example Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the Hornets, who is locked up under contract for several years. This makes the outlook for the Hornets look worse than it really is.

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