This map shows the projected net drop in the number of people with healthcare coverage by 2026 as a percentage of each state’s projected 2026 population. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), the Senate Republican’s version of the healthcare bill, would increase the number of people without insurance by 22 million people in 2026, relative to current law. The Center for American Progress, a progressive think-tank, then created their own estimates of how this 22 million drop in coverage would be distributed across the US.
I took these state by state projected coverage losses and divided them by the population of each state in 2026 to get the net % of the state’s population that would lose coverage. I was unable to find a projection for the 2026 population, but the Cooper Center had population projections for each state for both 2020 and 2030, so I used those to create an estimate for the 2026 population. This projection will obviously not be exact, but it should only affect the estimates on the margins.
North Carolina would see the largest share of their population lose coverage under the BCRA, with 1,348,300 people losing coverage, equaling 12.1% of the state’s 2026 population. The majority of southern states would be hit hard with coverage losses, as would north-western states like Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, and Alaska. The Southwest, Midwest, and New England would see smaller losses as a share of their population, although Vermont and Maine would lose a lot of coverage. North Dakota would see the smallest reduction, a loss in coverage for 25,100 people, 2.8% of the state’s 2026 population.
|State||Net Coverage Loss by 2026||2026 Population||% of Population losing Coverage|
|District of Columbia||41,200||847,324||4.86%|