Projected Healthcare Coverage Loss under the Senate Republican Healthcare Bill, by US State

Healthcare Losses

This map shows the projected net drop in the number of people with healthcare coverage by 2026 as a percentage of each state’s projected 2026 population. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), the Senate Republican’s version of the healthcare bill, would increase the number of people without insurance by 22 million people in 2026, relative to current law.  The Center for American Progress, a progressive think-tank, then created their own estimates of how this 22 million drop in coverage would be distributed across the US.

I took these state by state projected coverage losses and divided them by the population of each state in 2026 to get the net % of the state’s population that would lose coverage. I was unable to find a projection for the 2026 population, but the Cooper Center had population projections for each state for both 2020 and 2030, so I used those to create an estimate for the 2026 population. This projection will obviously not be exact, but it should only affect the estimates on the margins.

North Carolina would see the largest share of their population lose coverage under the BCRA, with 1,348,300 people losing coverage, equaling 12.1% of the state’s 2026 population. The majority of southern states would be hit hard with coverage losses, as would north-western states like Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, and Alaska. The Southwest, Midwest, and New England would see smaller losses as a share of their population, although Vermont and Maine would lose a lot of coverage. North Dakota would see the smallest reduction, a loss in coverage for 25,100 people, 2.8% of the state’s 2026 population.

State Net Coverage Loss by 2026 2026 Population % of Population losing Coverage
Alabama 480,500 5,022,882 9.57%
Alaska 64,500 799,748 8.07%
Arizona 461,000 7,825,693 5.89%
Arkansas 172,400 3,108,621 5.55%
California 2,483,000 43,340,158 5.73%
Colorado 240,100 6,462,721 3.72%
Connecticut 206,800 3,623,350 5.71%
Delaware 59,500 1,052,949 5.65%
District of Columbia 41,200 847,324 4.86%
Florida 2,086,500 23,692,297 8.81%
Georgia 963,200 11,392,280 8.45%
Hawaii 58,200 1,590,275 3.66%
Idaho 144,700 1,850,456 7.82%
Illinois 654,800 12,912,550 5.07%
Indiana 270,400 6,903,913 3.92%
Iowa 127,900 3,287,772 3.89%
Kansas 198,200 3,033,930 6.53%
Kentucky 231,400 4,603,890 5.03%
Louisiana 343,000 4,963,945 6.91%
Maine 117,900 1,330,507 8.86%
Maryland 227,400 6,513,263 3.49%
Massaschusetts 285,300 7,328,967 3.89%
Michigan 489,400 9,996,796 4.90%
Minnesota 217,600 5,889,676 3.69%
Mississippi 278,000 3,042,504 9.14%
Missouri 479,000 6,279,214 7.63%
Montana 81,100 1,128,361 7.19%
Nebraska 173,100 2,047,640 8.45%
Nevada 122,500 3,327,906 3.68%
New Hampshire 45,500 1,359,273 3.35%
New Jersey 418,300 9,303,740 4.50%
New Mexico 133,400 2,138,070 6.24%
New York 1,139,000 20,670,766 5.51%
North Carolina 1,348,300 11,173,353 12.07%
North Dakota 25,100 899,823 2.79%
Ohio 469,600 11,765,616 3.99%
Oklahoma 395,100 4,261,102 9.27%
Oregon 283,300 4,468,784 6.34%
Pennsylvania 731,000 13,002,441 5.62%
Rhode Island 45,800 1,063,341 4.31%
South Carolina 458,000 5,505,311 8.32%
South Dakota 63,700 957,376 6.65%
Tennessee 634,600 7,153,339 8.87%
Texas 2,430,600 33,007,950 7.36%
Utah 186,000 3,541,234 5.25%
Vermont 51,200 626,280 8.18%
Virginia 521,800 9,225,884 5.66%
Washington 298,700 8,186,933 3.65%
West Virginia 118,100 1,825,027 6.47%
Wisconsin 394,100 5,944,911 6.63%
Wyoming 49,000 635,003 7.72%